Subsequent work has demonstrated that positive testing is not inherently irrational [austerweil2011seeking, perfors2009confirmation, oeberst_toward_2023]; for instance, when target phenomena are relatively rare, positive testing approximates optimal information gathering [klayman_confirmation_1987]. Bias emerges not from the strategy itself, but from the interaction between the search strategy and the environment [klayman_varieties_1995]. When a learner’s hypothesis is a subset of, or embedded within, the truth, positive testing yields “ambiguous verifications” that the learner mistakes for strong evidence for their hypothesis [klayman_confirmation_1987]. This creates a feedback loop where the search strategy retrieves only confirming data, and the learner fails to account for the fact that they are sampling from a biased subset of reality.
Фото: Bulkin Sergey / News.ru / Globallookpress.com
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Regional Fed presidents, whose vote holds equal weight to that of the chair, are already indicating that their wait-and-see stance is further warranted by the conflict. Cleveland’s president, Beth Hammack, said rates could be held for “quite some time,” with Iran presenting a new inflationary risk. Likewise, Minneapolis Fed president Neel Kashkari said this week he was growing less confident about his previous estimation of a 25 basis point cut this year, explaining: “With the geopolitical events, we need to get a lot more data in.”,更多细节参见PDF资料