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Goedert enters the 2026 season as the poster boy for inevitable touchdown regression to the mean. After scoring 24 touchdowns in his first seven seasons (3.4 per year), Goedert inexplicably leaped to 11 scores in 15 games in 2025. Goedert's expected TD total was 5.1, and he saw only five end zone targets (12 tight ends saw more). Goedert is a solid fantasy tight end -- he has finished 12th or better in PPG each of the past seven seasons -- but he often misses games (at least two in each of the past six years) and has never finished in the top eight at the position in targets or catches. The 31-year-old is likely to deliver fringe-TE1 numbers in 2026.
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